According to a very extensive research published by the World Bank, COVID-19 has triggered one of the most disruptive economic recession as ever witnessed by modern societies. Quoting the Global Economic Prospect report:

[…] the pandemic will also have severe and long-lasting socio-economic impacts that may well weaken long-term growth prospects—the plunge in investment because of elevated uncertainty, the erosion of human capital from the legions of unemployed, and the potential for ruptures of trade and supply linkages.

Source: Global Economic Prospect, A World Bank Group Flagship Report, June 2020

According to another essay:

[…] when compared with pre-crisis forecasts, COVID-19 could push 71 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 under the baseline scenario and 100 million under the downside scenario.

Source: Projected poverty impacts of COVID-19 (coronavirus), Overview of Results, World Bank, 2020

Analysts from the IMF (International Monetary Found) are also on the same take: in a report published back in June 2020, experts warned the public about the incoming of A Crisis Like No Other [with] An Uncertain Recovery.

As we speak, while some countries, after desperate measures, managed to back down the spread of the virus; US, India, Russia, Brazil and many Middle-East countries are still hostages of out-of-control outbreaks.

As a result, the global real GDP growth is expected to plumb until the end of 2020 with the global public debt exceeding both World Wars’ peaks.

Global Public Debt – An Historical Comparison

Source: Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery, IMF, June 2020

EU economy makes no exception: according to what emerged from the Spring 2020 Economic Forecast, the EU economy is foreseen to contract of nearly 8% during 2020. Source: Spring 2020 Economic Forecast: A deep and uneven recession, an uncertain recovery, EU Commission, 2020

The territorial economic impact sees slight differences among East and West regions, but with no real heterogeneity of the phenomenon.

GDP impact at regional level (July 2020)

Source: The Territorial Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Eu; Territorial Development Insights Series - July 2020

Entrepreneurship stands as the core engine for the progress and development of modern societies. As so, National Recovery Plan cannot exclude entrepreneurs’ financial sustainability from the resiliency frameworks. 

In an exclusive interview for Times of Entrepreneurship, Aileen Ionescu-Somers (executive director of Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, GEM) shares his views on what established and aspiring entrepreneurs can expect after the COVID crisis – on the basis of few lesson learned from similar economic catastrophes.

Necessity-based entrepreneurship – that is, entrepreneurship that is based largely on a “no-choice scenario” – increases greatly during recessions and particularly during the recovery phase. In other words, when there are no jobs on the market, the only choice can be to try and muster a way of making money by creating a small business in a traditional transactional mode.

2. Opportunities exist

In a wave of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” wand, food delivery, educators and gym instructors have massively moved to providing more services online, thus probably permanently changing consumer perceptions and expectations of what they want from these services in the future.

3. Entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well

One of the key characteristics of the entrepreneur is the willingness (and ability) to find ways of overcoming barriers. As we grapple with the uncertainties about what a “new business normal” looks like, we’re finding hope in this entrepreneurial characteristic. Its power cannot be underestimated.

Such optimistic feeling is not an isolated case. In an opinion article published for the World Economic Forum, Brian A. Wong (Vice-President for the Alibaba Group) declared that:

SMEs are the backbone of any society for job creation and economic contribution. They are the pathfinders during the journey to economic recovery. Those among them who can pivot their venture and team to adopt digital technologies and enable their customers, partners and the local community will have the best opportunity to survive and thrive in the long term.

Some others speculates that the post-pandemic crisis will act as a nourishment for more competitive, innovative and sustainable business models – a very complex phenomenon observed cyclically during and after major economic depressions. 

These resiliency paths will leverage on an overall redesign of the value equation, a greater commitment to the valorisation of intellectual capital, the exploitation of digital markets opportunities and the paradigm shift to an ecosystem mindsets. 

McKinsey spotted three new catalyst that will nurture post-COVID businesses:

Source: Reimagining the post-pandemic organization, McKinsey Quarterly, 2020

Similarly, Boston Consulting Group envision new thriving business opportunities through a three-layers resiliency model…

…further grounded on six dimension:…

In conclusion, resiliency models take into account intuitive but deeply impactful recommendations:

1.  Be aware of the consequences of your actions
2.  Challenge your mindset and get ready to engage the unknown
3.  Do not go alone – flatten the hierarchy, ask for help, ask for feedbacks, accept the fact that you might be wrong
4.  Engage your community and make your stakeholders valuable part of your value chain
5. “Go digital”
6.  Embrace Green Economy opportunities
7.  Valorise the outcome rather than the output

Re-elaborated from: Seven Ways To Make Business Truly Sustainable Post-COVID, Forbes, 2020